Nash balance and estimates of the chances of future events occurring

Authors

  • Luiz Maurício de Andrade da Silva Academia da Força Aérea (AFA)
  • Eduardo Xavier Ferreira Glaser Migon Escola de Comando e Estado-Maior do Exército (ECEME)
  • Gabriel Brandello de Oliveira Haguenauer Moura Universidade da Força Aérea (UNIFA)

DOI:

https://doi.org/10.22480/revunifa.2019.32.285

Keywords:

Quick decisions, Uncertainties, Defense Sector, Nash Equilibrium

Abstract

Decisions are made in dynamic or stable environments, in situations involved in greater or lesser risk. The problems are then solved with the application of reason, subjectivity of the decision-maker, or the combination of both approaches, always depending on anticipations about the context of the decision in the face of time availability for such a decision. This article presents a proposal for the application of the Nash Equilibrium theory in situations of quick decisions. Based on two hypothetical cases, adaptations, adjustments and complements to the theory of balance are presented that elucidate the feasibility of applying this theory in situations of quick decision-making, in dynamic environments in the Defense sector. In conclusion, adaptations and proposals with potential for improvement of decisions in the Defense sector are made, in situations that require this type of deliberation.

References

BESANKO, D.; DRANOVE, D.; SHANLEY, M. Economics of strategy. New York: John Wiley & Sons, 2000.

FRIEDMAN, J. A.; ZECKHAUSER, R. Handling and mishandling estimative probability: likelihood, confidence and the search for Bin Laden. Intelligence and National Security, v. 30, n. 1, p. 77-99, 2014. DOI: 10.1080/02684527.2014.885202.

GAWANDE, A. The checklist manifesto: how to get things right. New York: Picador, 2010.

GIGERENZER, G. O poder da intuição: o inconsciente dita as melhores decisões. Rio de Janeiro: Best Seller, 2009.

GIGERENZER, G. Reckoning with risk: learning to live with uncertainty. London: Penguim Books, 2002.

GIGERENZER, G.; GOLDSTEIN, D. G. Reasoning the fast and frugal way: models of bounded rationality. Psychological Review, v. 103, n. 4, p. 650-669, 1996. DOI: 10.1093/acprof:oso/ 9780199744282.003.0002.

GOODWIN, P.; WRIGHT, G. Decision analysis for management judgment. 4 ed. Chichester, UK: John Wiley & Sons, 2009.

HAIR, C.; ANDERSON, R. E.; TATHAM, R. L.; BLACK, W. C. Multivariate data analysis with readings. New York: Macmillan, 1987.

KAHNEMAN, D. Thinking, fast and slow. New York: Farrar, Straus and Giroux, 2011.

KLEIN, G. Sources of power: how people make decisions. Cambridge: MIT Press, 2000.

MOURA, G. B. O. H.; SILVA, L. M. A. Caso Brandello: estudo de caso elaborado na Academia da Força Aérea. Pirassununga, SP, 2006. (Relatório não publicado).

SILVA, L. M. A. Critérios de decisão na Academia da Força Aérea: conjugação de abordagens em função da teoria prospectiva. Revista Conexão SIPAER, v. 4, n. 2, p. 116-129, 2013. ISSN: 2176-7777.

SILVA, L. M. A. Instrumentalização do planejamento estratégico: aplicação no setor aeroviário comercial brasileiro. 2000. 181 p. Tese (Doutorado em Administração) – FEA/USP, São Paulo, 2000.

SILVA, L. M. A. Tomada de decisões em pequenas empresas. São Paulo: Cobra Editora, 2004.

STANOVICH, K. E.; WEST, R. F. Individual differences in reasoning: implications for the rationality debate? Behavioral and brain sciences, v. 23, n. 5, p. 654-665, 2000. DOI: 10.1017/ S0140525X00003435.

STEVENSON, W. J. Estatística aplicada à administração. São Paulo: Harbra, 1986.

VIANNA, N. W. H. A subjetividade no processo de previsão. 1989. Tese (Doutorado em Administração e Contabilidade). FEA/USP, São Paulo, 1989.

VIANNA, N. W. H. Probabilidade subjetiva e o júri de especialistas. 1982. 84 p. Dissertação (Mestrado em Administração de Empresas) – FGV, São Paulo, 1982.

Published

2019-06-30

Issue

Section

Original Articles

How to Cite

Nash balance and estimates of the chances of future events occurring. The Journal of the University of the Air Force , Rio de Janeiro, v. 32, n. 1, 2019. DOI: 10.22480/revunifa.2019.32.285. Disponível em: https://revistadaunifa.fab.mil.br/index.php/reunifa/article/view/285.. Acesso em: 21 nov. 2024.

Similar Articles

1-10 of 424

You may also start an advanced similarity search for this article.

Most read articles by the same author(s)